Arminia Bielefeld +0.25 2.07?

Duckstabber · Feb 14, 2006

Any thoughts regarding Kaiserslautern v Arminia Bielefeld this Saturday? I like Arminia Bielefeld +0.25 2.07 @ Pointbet but I have a hard time figuring Lautern out right now...

Kaiserslautern at home: 2-3-6, 18-29
Bielefeld away: 1-5-4, 10-18

Bielefeld have lost 2 games after the winter break but only by 1 goal and it was against Werder Bremen and HSV. They beat Stuttgart at home this weekend. Lautern have also started out ok especially their last away win against Werder Bremen.

Is Bielefeld +0.25 worth it? Was Lauterns win against Werder a fluke or have they picked up their game?

chriscol · Feb 14, 2006

Duckstabber said:
Any thoughts regarding Kaiserslautern v Arminia Bielefeld this Saturday? I like Arminia Bielefeld +0.25 2.07 @ Pointbet but I have a hard time figuring Lautern out right now...

Kaiserslautern at home: 2-3-6, 18-29
Bielefeld away: 1-5-4, 10-18

Bielefeld have lost 2 games after the winter break but only by 1 goal and it was against Werder Bremen and HSV. They beat Stuttgart at home this weekend. Lautern have also started out ok especially their last away win against Werder Bremen.

Is Bielefeld +0.25 worth it? Was Lauterns win against Werder a fluke or have they picked up their game?

it was a complete fluke. i think bremen had 15-1 corner and they even scored a goal in 80 min, where ball was half a meter over the line, but the refs didn t see it. they admitted after the game they made a mistake, but that does not help my cologne team at all :-(
No it was just a very, very lucky punch by Kaiserslautern.
Nevertheless all three bottom teams playing much better recently. in 4 matches after the break Kaiserslautern, duisburg and Köln all lost only one game each.

A prediction for the bielefeld games is far too early for me, i ussually start looking on fridays.

JackDee · Feb 14, 2006

"No it was just a very, very lucky punch by Kaiserslautern."

Of course you gotta be lucky to overturn a 1.25 favourite.

"Nevertheless all three bottom teams playing much better recently. in 4 matches after the break Kaiserslautern, duisburg and Köln all lost only one game each."

Chris, do you see this a general trend that lower positioned teams at some point do go on a better streak EVERY year thus regressing to their mean?

chriscol · Feb 14, 2006

actually i dont know. i dont have any statistics on that, but the more they facing relegation the more desperate they are playing, more efford, more fight..that at least closes the gap to the better teams IMO.

i once posted games here in the past in a thread calles "season ending games"
This was based on motivation. you have to select teams which have something to play for (mostly the top-team and bottom teams) and play them against non-inspired teams (those in mid-table). works mostly the last 6-7 games of season.
There is also another effect in 2.Liga or regionalliga that you find teams which are always on the top, but surprisingly find a way not to promote, as they have not the financial backing or infrastructure to play in a higher league. they are happy, where they are... look especially for Fürth in this case. Aachen also, but i think this year they really want to promote.

Duckstabber · Feb 14, 2006

JackDee said:
Of course you gotta be lucky to overturn a 1.25 favourite.

Well, not necessarily! But it seems to have been that case with Kaiserslautern...

Duckstabber · Feb 14, 2006

chriscol said:
A prediction for the bielefeld games is far too early for me, i ussually start looking on fridays.

I just like to start earlier since the juicy lines are only available for so long.

JackDee · Feb 14, 2006

"Well, not necessarily!"

First of all you have to be at least dencent, then you don't have to be super lucky but if you lack the ability as demonstrated by a 1.25 favourite you at least have to have luck at the very least slightly on your side not neutral, well except if the other team has horrible stomach cramps by their chinese take away they ate the prevous night or massive injuries sustained by a freak changing room accident at the showers involving soap etc. but that too is luck on your side.

chriscol · Feb 17, 2006

coming closer to the weekend i must say i like the bielefeld play..it'S right now again just a feeling, but that was a good thing to follow also last week on the schalke match.
from the poor figures and recent results it looks like KLautern should have a good chance to win, but i got the feeling they will be a bit over-confident after the fluke-win over bremen and will come down to earth (or better crash down).they are still a bad team, which should not lay anything to anybody anywhere...so not a big play, but if you play it, bielefeld is the right side.